We examine the requirements that India, Australia, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh must meet in order to advance to the T20 World Cup semifinals. Australia plays India live on Sports Channels starting at 3 p.m. on Monday (3.30 p.m. first ball), and Afghanistan plays Bangladesh live on the same channel starting at 1 a.m. on Tuesday (1.30 a.m. first ball).

Due to Afghanistan’s unexpected victory against Australia in the T20 World Cup, all four of the teams in Super 8s Group 1 have a chance to advance to the semifinals.

Bangladesh is up against it after two crushing losses, while India is in the lead after winning their first two second-round matches by a wide margin.

These are the lineups for the last round of matches, which will see Afghanistan play Bangladesh on Tuesday (1.30am UK) and India play Australia on Monday (3.30pm UK).

Describe net run-rate.
Similar to how goal difference is used in football, this metric is used in league formats to differentiate teams that are tied for the same number of points.

In a tournament, a team’s net run-rate is calculated by deducting the average number of runs they score from opponents per over from their own average runs scored in an over.

When a team gets bowled out, its net run-rate is calculated by dividing the total number of runs by the number of overs they are allowed to bat, which in this event is obviously 20 overs.

India is headed to the semifinals.

If Rohit Sharma’s team defeats Australia or the match is called off due to rain, they would undoubtedly make it to the semi-finals. Rohit Sharma’s team defeated Afghanistan and Bangladesh by 47 and 50 runs, respectively.

They will also proceed if Afghanistan is defeated by Bangladesh after they lose, or if the game is called off.

India’s robust net run-rate, which is currently +2.425, would still put them in good stead even if they lost to Australia and Afghanistan and then defeated Bangladesh. This would leave India, Australia, and Afghanistan tied on four points apiece.

Australia and Afghanistan are probably competing for one spot.
Australia now has a higher net-run rate (+0.223) than Afghanistan (-0.65), which could give the 2021 winners the advantage if both teams win or lose.
To put an example, Afghanistan would have to win Bangladesh by 36 runs to overtake Australia in terms of net run-rate if Australia defeated India by one run.

Australia’s net run-rate would have to fall below Afghanistan’s if the latter lost by just one run. In that case, Australia would need to lose by 31 runs.

Australia is out if they win and Afghanistan loses. Afghanistan is out if they win and Australia loses. Both games ended in a tie, and Australia advanced on NRR.

Bangladesh, what about it?

Bangladesh’s dismal net run-rate of -2.489 is making it difficult for them to get to the semi-finals. They would need to overcome Australia by a significant margin against India in order to do this.

They would have to defeat their opponents by 31 runs to surpass Afghanistan on NRR, but even that would only secure second position should Australia lose to India by 55 runs.